TRUMP'S MARCH MADNESS

      On the last day of February, Donald J. Trump ordered US forces to attack Iran, with a focus on assassinating Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.  The attack occurred while the US was negotiating with Iran about its nuclear and missile programs, and its support for terrorist groups.  Iran had made major concessions, but amateur negotiators Steve Witcoff and Jared Kushner were unimpressed.  The attack on Iran occurred between the second and third rounds of talks.  My first thought was a similar occurrence, the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor during its negotiations with the US.  The next day, President Roosevelt stressed the perfidy of the Japanese in talking while an attack was being prepared and then launched.  To hear the new Iran leader rule out talks because of Iran’s bitter experiences in negotiating with the US makes clear that America is now seen as perfidious.  Other countries will also distrust America in negotiations.

Everyone now knows that, at the moment when Trump launched the attack, he had no good reason.  A 6 March Atlantic article itemizes ten reasons which his administration offered during the first week: address imminent threat, prevent nuclear weapons, stop the militias, effect regime change, punish election interference, secure world peace, secure a better world for our children, launch a preemptive attack, fulfill God’s purpose, and join an inevitable Israeli attack.  Any administration which offers up so many reasons for an attack and shifts among them on a daily or even hourly basis has no reason at all.  The most likely reason: Trump responded to Netanyahu’s urging.

 

The talk about long-term planning before Trump ordered the attack is nonsense intended to quiet criticism that the attack was poorly planned or even unplanned.  It is administration propaganda to show that Trump did not act impulsively.  More likely, after Trump ordered the attack, planners hastily dusted off old contingency plans and updated them with recent intelligence about Khamenei’s and other government leaders’ whereabouts.  But they lacked the time to update other parts of the plan—which explains why a girls’ school, previously part of a military installation, was attacked and about 175 schoolgirls and teachers killed.

 

All else about this attack on Iran reflects gross ignorance and gross incompetence, except for excellence in strictly military operations.  Trump gave no thought to Iran’s capabilities or intentions for responding.  He gave no thought to Iran’s ability to launch missile or drone attacks on targets throughout the area, incite terrorist groups like Hezbollah, and trigger terrorist attacks through sleeper cells.  He gave no thought to the consequences of such attacks on shipping through the Strait of Hormuz—direct consequences including a halt to shipments of, among other commodities, oil, fertilizer, and machine parts; or the indirect costs of higher prices for food because higher prices of diesel fuel make it more expensive to operate farm tractors and run to-market trucks.

 

Trump, always unable to consider any perspective other than his own, assumes that patriots and patriotism exist only in the US.  He did not consider or care that Iranians would be infuriated by an attack on their country and their leaders, bad as the old Ayatollah was and the new Ayatollah is likely to be.  So he and Hegseth will be surprised if Iran continues to fight on.  But back in the U.S. of A., Trump and Hegseth and others in the administration, reflecting their ethnocentric biases, talk about the duration of the war is terms contradictory and thus confusing.  Trump talks vaguely about the war ending soon; Hegseth talks about the attacks continuing for several more weeks or months.  That is the US side of the issue because Trump thinks that he sets the calendar.  But Iran has a calendar, too.

 

And, on its calendar, Iran is likely to continue damaging and disruptive attacks on many targets to inflict as much pain as possible on the US for as long as it chooses.  Drones and missiles will attack targets in Israel, Arab states on the Persian Gulf or the Gulf of Oman, and allied countries; they and mines will keep the Strait of Hormuz closed.  Even if Trump were to send ground troops into Iran to prevent attacks on shipping in those gulfs, they would likely have only limited success, which might not be success enough for shippers to take the risks of running the narrow passage.  Using ground troops would have unfortunate repercussions for him and Congressional Republicans who have thus far imposed no limits on his warmaking.

 

So Iran will try to punish the US for its devastating and destructive attacks.  It will attack US bases overseas and vulnerable “soft” targets at home like a basketball stadium during March Madness or a Black Friday sale at a large retail store like Macy’s in New York.  The military will be prepared for such attacks, but the US will be surprised if—when—Iran brings the fight to America because, at the end of February, just before the attack on Iran, Kash Patel, FBI Director, fired a dozen counter-intelligence analysts expert in Iran because they had been involved in the investigation of Trump’s retention of classified documents at Mar-a-Lago.  Trump’s administration has reduced or eliminated other staff experts in counter-intelligence, foreign espionage, and cyberwarfare, and thus impaired the US ability to defend itself against its enemies—today, especially Iran’s—covert operations.

 

In short, Trump bit off more than he could chew.  With his lack of information and foresight, he did not know what he was doing when he launched the attack in his usual impulsive way—Trump just being Trump.  Now, as consequences which he cannot control become apparent, he does not know what to do.  Reports in the New York Times indicate that he is scared, as well he—and we, though for different reasons—should be.  That leaks are coming from the White House suggests that the rats are perhaps looking for the mooring ropes to leave ship.

 

If Republicans were to seek to limit the damage being done by the Trump administration, they would take a first step by blocking the nomination of Markwayne Mullin to be Secretary of the Department of Homeland Security.  His resume reads like a lampoon of an official: no college, career in plumbing, ten years in Congress, and a reputation for being the “dimmest bulb” in the Senate—an attainment the more remarkable because of competition from Tommy Tuberville.  His major recommendation is loyalty to Trump, a loyalty which can be dangerous to the country.

 

Trump is responsible for his nominations, but Republican senators are responsible for their confirmation.  In most cases, they voted unanimously to confirm the most ignorant, least competent, and probably most corrupt nominees in history—any qualifications subordinate to loyalty to the dear leader.  Among them, the more notorious are Kristi Noem (Homeland Security, recently fired), Pete Hegseth (Defense), Pam Bondi (Justice), Scott Bessent (Treasury), Howard Lutnick (Commerce), Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. Health & Human Services), Chris Wright (Energy), and Linda McMahon (Education).  A demonstration of their unfitness is likely coming as the consequences of Trump’s attack on Iran come home to America.

 

It will take more than a Blue Wave in November to hold accountable those—Trump and Congressional Republicans—who now endanger its safety and welfare.  After all, American elected Trump, not once, but twice, the second time after being given four years to reconsider the man and his malignant narcissism.  And many of those who did not vote for him have still acquiesced in his authoritarian efforts, the propensity to do so being proportionate to their or their companies’ wealth.  Trump has brought out the worst in Republicans and in DINOs; it will take the best in the rest of us to repair what they have broken.