Wednesday, August 12, 2026

SOME REFLECTIONS ON THE U.S. WAR AGAINST IRAN

       There is no better example of the ill consequences of actions based on ignorance and motivated by arrogance than Trump’s self-initiated attack on Iran launched on 28 February.  Anyone who knows anything about foreign affairs in the Middle East has long known that Iran has had the option to close the Strait of Hormuz as a strategic response to an American or Israeli attack.  Military planners expected Iran would close the Strait in the event of hostilities between it and America, and so advised the President.  He rejected their advice out of blind pride.

 

Yet, despite the hostile relationship between Iran and America for nearly half a century, Iran had not exercised the option to close the Strait until this war.  The question is why; the answer is that exercising that option, with its severe worldwide consequences, would, without justification, have incurred the wrath of many nations.  Trump’s attack provided that justification, and many countries in the region, though not allied with Iran, understand and in part forgive its response.  They may chafe under its new regime of controlled shipments and payments of transit fees, but they are unlikely to do more than try to alleviate its terms by negotiation and political pressure.

 

So the question is why Iran did not close the Strait when America and Israel attacked Iran’s nuclear facilities.  The answer depends on a crucial distinction between hostility and hostilities.  The June 2025 American/Israeli attacks had no political objective—that is, regime change.  Instead, they had only a military objective, the destruction of those facilities, with tacit support from countries in the region which fear Iran’s possession of nuclear weapons.  Trump’s February 2026 attack on Iran was different because it also had the political objective of regime change.  That objective ensured that Iran would react, to the surprise of no one but Trump and Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth.  Both were either ignorant of this likelihood or indifferent to it in the hubristic belief in America’s military superiority.

 

After over five months of on-again, off-again attacks and talks, Trump and Hegseth have lost the war.  They have achieved none of its alleged objectives, primarily, regime change and termination of Iran’s nuclear-weapon program.  Indeed, they lost the war before the attack was launched mainly because they had only their arrogant, racist belief that an economically and politically suffering third-world Muslim country would quickly submit to a sudden onslaught of expensive, high-tech weaponry of the worlds’ most powerful military.  Such a belief is the more remarkable because Trump and Hegseth know that America, despite its overwhelming military might, lost its war in Vietnam, a country far more vulnerable because less populous, educated, and developed than Iran.

 

With traditional American hubris, Trump and Hegseth, with their boyish fascination with video-game-like razzle-dazzle weaponry, thought the attack would produce victory in a matter of weeks.  Anticipating their amusement, Hegseth expended vast quantities of costly, sophisticated ballistic and cruise missiles, though a few thousands-of-dollars bombs could have done as much targeted damage as one multi-million-dollar missile.  Using more conventional munitions would mean delivering them by tactical fighter-bombers and strategic bombers, and risking pilots’ lives, but it is unlikely that either considered using missiles to save lives.  If American forces had incapacitated Iran’s air defenses—Hegseth’s claim cannot be readily believed—, then the use of conventional weapons at a negligible increase in casualties would have avoided the far greater problems created by depleting theater arsenals of major military assets, with serious implications for strategic requirements elsewhere in the world, particularly the Far East, especially Taiwan.

 

Trump and Hegseth have lost the war because they foresaw no ill consequences, had no support or strategy, and squandered valuable munitions—and could not have prevailed against a determined opponent resolute in its resistance to an existential threat.  Having lost, America is now a weaker, more vulnerable country.  For many months or some years, the military will be weakened by shortages of major weapon systems.  Its power, as exercised by its armed forces, has been exposed as having diminished effectiveness in achieving political objectives.  More importantly, America’s prestige has been tarnished and its authority undermined by ignorant, arrogant, and erratic decision making.  The world has witnessed a demonstration of collective incompetence at the highest levels of America’s government.  At this point, America is anything but great again—in the words of Richard Nixon, it is “a helpless, pitiful giant—, and Trump, who campaigned to “make America great again” has done as much to erode its reputation and dissipate its moral, economic, political, and military strength as our adversaries could wish.

 

Trump is in a quandary from which he cannot escape.  His military attacks have failed, and more attacks cannot succeed.  He lacks diplomatic skills and is deemed untrustworthy by foreign diplomats; his substitute negotiators are equally unskilled and untrustworthy.  His ego, brittle but defensive, and his personality, immature and irresponsible, cannot admit error or defeat.  His ego will not let him admit that he has lost the war and much American influence in foreign affairs.  His personality will lead him to insist that others, mainly Obama and Biden, are to blame.  For anyone but Trump, the aftermath—though there looks to be no aftermath in the short term—would provide a steady diet of crow and humble pie.  All in all, his Iran escapade has shown Trump to be a loser to everyone but himself.  Because he cannot admit his mistakes and losses, he cannot learn from the one and cut the others.  Which means a continuation of the armed impasse and its consequences, and more of Trump’s braggadocio, bungling, and boondoggle.

 

Until the Democrats achieve regime change here, America cannot expect any improvement in our relations with countries abroad.  Indeed, Trump is liable to initiate other adventures, like occupying Greenland and Cuba.  In Greenland, he will use the locals’ resistance as a pretext to protect a Texas oil venture illegally landing drilling gear in its northeast region and thereby begin the occupation.  This case of might making right by Trump’s standards will serve Trump and his cronies, but it will do nothing to enhance America’s standing in the world.  What its effect on NATO will be remains an open question likely with an uncomfortable answer.

 

It is unlikely that Trump can be stopped unless Democrats acquire a majority at least in the House.  At the very least, it must restrict or refuse funding for the Department of Defense and the Department of Homeland Security.  In the event of violations of the law and inaction by the Department of Justice, it must restrict or refuse funding it, too.  I am not hopeful, however.  Democrats are not much more courageous than Republicans.  Whereas Republicans act because of their cult-like subservience to Trump, Democrats dither because of their political diversity and their aversion to vigorous though righteous action. 

Friday, July 17, 2026

DOES NEW MEXICO’S DEPARTMENT OF JUSTICE RUN A PROTECTION RACKET FOR DEMOCRATS?

      In my 29 May blog, I questioned whether Attorney General Raúl Torrez is committed to open government or not.  The answer is probably not.  The New Mexico Department of Justice’s (NMDOJ) has thus far failed to respond to several requests to reopen my complaint about Open Meeting Act (OMA) violations by former members of the Las Cruces City Council, including incumbent Democratic Congressional District 2 candidate Gabe Vasquz and independent candidate for governor Ken Miyagishima.  Vasquez and Miyagishima need NMDOJ protection.

Friday, July 10, 2026

ACCOUNTABILITY AND REFORM AS AND AFTER THE TRUMP ADMINISTRATION COLLAPSES

     To follow the Democratic, liberal, or Progressive independent media is to know their commentators’ eagerness to hold Trump administration officials, especially higher-ranking ones, and Trump-hired employees accountable for their misdeeds.  They want them investigated, prosecuted, and, if warranted, convicted and sentenced to prison for whatever federal crimes for which Trump has not pardoned them and for whatever state crimes for which he cannot pardon them.  They want DOJ lawyers, pardoned or not, who served Trump as their client, disbarred, disbarment being a state prerogative beyond the reach of a presidential pardon.  They want to replace Trump’s non-criminal political hacks and hires in order to reconstitute departments, agencies, and boards with competent, dedicated people.  These leftist commentators can thank the Supreme Court for presidential authority to clean up the Executive Branch.  Ironically, such practices to render accountability will be in full accord with the theory of the unitary executive which SCOTUS has implemented in many of its worst decisions.  Yet they might be a problem.

Saturday, July 4, 2026

THE OLDER I GET, THE BETTER I WAS

     This July 4th, as it commemorates the 250th anniversary of the signing of the Declaration of Independence, calls for retrospection and reassessment, for a comparison of past and present conditions of our country.  In some, it prompts either a naïve nostalgia assuming the superiority of the former to the latter or a political yearning for a return to yesteryear.  For them, this bon mot is apt; for me, it is amusing, for I do not think it true of me as I compare the times of my earlier and later years.  I have been pleased to age; I think that I have learned more, even acquired a modicum of wisdom (a word not much in use today), and changed for the better.

Wednesday, June 24, 2026

THE SILVER LINING IN TRUMP’S IRAN WAR

    Almost every media outlet, almost every commentator, and almost every media outlet—left, center, right—agree that Trump’s Iran war launched on 28 February and formally ended on 17 June was a disastrous and humiliating defeat in every possible way for the United States.

Trump’s war achieved none of its objectives, variously stated, variously emphasized.  They were: unconditional surrender, regime change, destruction of Iran’s military capabilities (missiles, planes, ships, and the capability of producing more missiles), cessation of Iran’s support for proxy forces (Hamas, Hezbollah, Houthi), and a permanent termination of Iran’s nuclear programs and assurances that it would not get nuclear weapons.

 

The contentious negotiations ending the war made clear that Iran did not surrender, much less unconditionally.  Although many Iranian leaders were killed, the regime survived with younger, stronger, more dedicated leadership; with more power concentrated in the hands of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.  US intelligence shows that a substantial portion of Iran’s military forces survived attacks; Trump now rationalizes that Iran should continue to have missiles.  No changes in its support of proxies or its continued nuclear enrichment program have occurred.  Worse, Iran took control of and closed the Strait of Hormuz, open to international shipping before the war, and still retains control, with the prospect of charging fees for passage.

 

Trump has further eroded the little trust remaining in his word.  In the three-and-a-half months of the war, he announced that the war was won and its end was just a few weeks, days, or even hours away—about 40 times.  He made threats of civilizational destruction, which implied the use of nuclear weapons—the threats alone being war crimes.  (No more credible is Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, who repeatedly trumpeted the devastating effects of US attacks, but, as Iran has proven its resilience and its success in asymmetric warfare, he has fallen silent.)

 

Trump has severely damaged relationships with major US allies.  He unilaterally started the war on a whim, without consulting aides or allies, and then found that he needed assistance from NATO countries when the war did not go according to his fanciful wishes.  His demands for their support offended them, none gave support, and some refused even to allow military overflights.  In response, Trump declared that the US never needed their support—a flip-flop calling into question the seriousness and stability of his demands.

 

Trump has shown the vacuity of anything which might be called thinking about America’s strategic interests.  He never considered what every war-planning exercise assumed in a war against Iran: its closing the Strait of Hormuz.  In his expert-free ignorance after the event, he said that no one had expected such a response.  Instead, he prefers to personalize and politicize all issues, to attack his predecessors and to abort their work regardless of its merits.  He condemned the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA),which the Obama administration achieved and from which Trump withdrew the US in 2018.  He will get no agreement with Iran about its nuclear programs as good as the JCPOA; he will be furious that Obama outdid him.

 

Trump will make the American taxpayer pay for his failed war.  One of Trump’s objections to the JCPOA was his claim that Obama paid Iran billions to agree to its terms.  Except for the US settling a long-standing dispute for $1.7. billion, the JCPOA merely allowed Iran access to $50-$55 billion of its own funds held in foreign accounts.  By contrast, the Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) between Iran and the US commits $300 billion to Iran.  The US claims that this money will come from private investors and foreign governments—unlikely because Iran lacks a stable legal system conducive to investment.  More likely, the funds will come from Arab governments in the region as political cover, with covert US reimbursement.

 

As an ignorant buffoon, an incompetent bungler, and a corrupt mobster, Trump has failed in his war, humiliated the US, and embarrassed America.  He has harmed the US internationally by undermining alliances with traditional allies.  He has needlessly risked the lives and welfare of its troops and killed untold numbers of civilians in other countries in pointless war.  By squandering resources required for the defense of its interests here and abroad, he has weakened America’s national security.

 

But all is not lost.  There are lessons to be learned from this humiliating defeat.

 

Lesson one: the Department of Defense (DoD) has learned nothing about asymmetric warfare from its long and deadly involvements in Vietnam and Afghanistan, countries smaller, poorer, less populated, and less advanced than Iran.  It must learn that overwhelming military firepower—Hegseth’s lethality—, even with enormous death and destruction, cannot ensure achieving US objectives.  No amount of bombing defeated the Vietnamese communists, the Taliban., or now the Iranians. It must learn that US arrogance prevents it from realizing that second- and third-world countries have loyal, resilient citizens and creative strategies and tactics suited to their environments.  DoD must face the realities of modern, often asymmetric, warfare.

 

Lesson two: American military prowess has been exposed as highly limited in its warfighting capabilities.  It expended billions in sophisticated, costly munitions against simple, inexpensive weapons, with only modest success.  Its depleted supplies of these weapons will take years and billions to replace.  Meanwhile, their loss leaves the US and its putative allies at greater risk of conflicts in other theaters.  DoD must shift procurement priorities, from an arsenal stocked with relatively few, expensive weapons to one stocked with many, relatively low-cost weapons.

 

Lesson three: American wars abroad have huge costs at home.  The economic costs are real; the costs of goods and services go up, and many businesses suffer from shortages, disruptions, or delays.  The political costs are no less real; popular support for the war at the start—the Iran war was unusual in lacking such support—subsides as the war continues.  Since Vietnam, America’s wars have lacked sustained domestic support and have fostered discontent.  Only by relying on a small professional army has the US been able to sustain long-term conflicts.  So wars fought in its citizens’ name but without their commitment have demoralizing and divisive effects.  DoD leadership must advise—insist, if possible—that the president not fight wars and sustain combat without popular support.  Flag officers might stand by the Constitution and the War Powers Act.

 

And there is a silver lining.

 

Lesson four: American leadership in international affairs has been permanently demoted to a new, lower status.  When Trump led the US into war, he found that he could not lead others, especially when he started it without a by-their-leave.  Trump may do so again (Greenland, Cuba, Panama, who’s next?), but successive presidents will know, for instance, that the Gulf of Mexico is no longer an American lake, more generally, that America will have to work as one of many equals, not necessarily as the first among equals.  Unless they follow his example, Trump’s successors must ingratiate themselves with the international community and accept a more modest role in international affairs.  At the very least, this reduced role will mean that the US will undertake fewer, if any, wars on its own initiative and will thereby encourage, even oblige, other nations to assume greater responsibility for their defense.  In fact, for the past few years, many nations have been doing exactly that.  Reacting to Trump’s erratic views, his impulsive actions, and his wavering support of Ukraine, NATO countries are increasing their defense budgets and coordinating their weapons and weapon systems with each other.  Sweden has abandoned neutrality and joined NATO; Japan is revising its military doctrine from a strictly defensive posture to a more long-range, offensive one.  As a result, US allies will have less need for US leadership and little tolerance of its arrogance.

 

The advantages of a more modest international role in matters of defense might lead to non-military advantages to the US.  With a shrunken sense of America’s exceptionalism, the US might be willing to work more collegially with other nations on issues of international concern: climate change, the non-proliferation of nuclear-weapons, epidemic control, artificial intelligence and other advanced technologies, among others.  After Iran, humility may become America.

 

In short, the silver lining of Trump’s Iran war is the humbling of the US.  No longer will it bully-rag other countries.  No longer will it resort to unilateral or coercive action and displace consultation and cooperation.  No longer will it be the paterfamilias of the family of nations; it will be just another member of that family.  Perhaps this family of democratic nations will welcome an avuncular Uncle Sam. 

Sunday, June 21, 2026

WHY DOES TRUMP HATE AMERICA?

      MAGA—Make America Great Again—is the slogan for Donald J. Trump’s ultimate con job on America.  It implies that America, once great, has lost its greatness and that Trump can restore it.  It implies that destruction of that greatness, interrupted by the presidency of George W. Bush, occurred during the presidencies of Bill Clinton and Barack Obama.

Friday, June 12, 2026

THE LEFT’S POST-TRUMP DELUSION: REFORMING TO RECONSTITUTE DEMOCRACY

      From time to time—times widely spaced—, I check in on Fox News for reassurance that the gaslighting of alternative realities and alternative facts continues with brio and gusto.  Otherwise, I mainly peruse the independent media—no New York Times or Washington Post for me—for news and commentary.  Each outlet—blog or Substack—has its perspective, but all are agreed that a “blue wave” in this fall’s election and another in the 2028 election will rout Republicans at every level, though not, of course, everywhere.  Most see a weakening of Trump, a reduced number of Congressional Republican representatives and senators, and a shriveling of the MAGA base.  Most see a revitalized Democratic Party blending moderates and progressives.

I see nothing of the sort.  I see difficulties prevailing in these elections, with federal forces intimidating voters or disrupting voting, election officials obstructing vote counts, and SCOTUS decisions on election cases invariably favoring the Republican Party and supporting the conduct of the Trump administration.  Even if a “blue wave” sweeps out Republican rubbish, I see a great deal of post-election rhetorical frothing and fulminating, but little significant or lasting in the way of the political reforms required to reconstitute a functioning democracy.  I see quarrels among different factions of the Democratic Party about diagnoses, priorities, and proposals to remedy the defects in democracy exposed by Trump’s and Heritage Foundation’s Project 2025’s successful attacks on this country’s political infrastructure.  I see compromises and kluges which leave matters only incrementally improved.  I see Democrats investigating more than legislating, quarreling about punishment and forgiveness, and further alienating a public which wants elected officials to govern, not settle scores (with Republicans and MAGA die-hards who deserve to have their scores settled).

 

My dour outlook reflects my belief that Trump, administration officials, and Republicans supporting him at all levels of government, have demoralized a majority of Americans and paralyzed them politically.  Their disillusionment with Trump which now threatens to overwhelm him, his administration, and his allies results from discomfort at the economic effects of tariffs, inflation, the curtailment of social safety-net benefits, anti-immigration efforts, and his Iran war.  Their disappointment at Trump’s failure to deliver on his promises—most had little chance of realization—has been matched by their recognition that the implementation of his promises has been inflationary or destructive.  The wall to keep immigrants out was never going to be built, much less funded by Mexico.  Tariffs have raised prices, disrupted trade, and devastated farming.  ICE raids have impaired operations of farms, hotels, and hospitality and construction industries, among many others.  Its anti-immigration raids purporting to target only the “worst of the worst” have swept up not only some illegal immigrants, many guilty of only misdemeanors, including illegal entry, but also many legal immigrants, visa-card holders, naturalized citizens, and even native-born citizens in a gulag of concentration camps euphemistically called detention centers.  Trump’s Iran war is an unmitigated disaster.  Whether the disillusionment or disappointment of many Americans with Trump and MAGA will motivate them to vote at all or for Democrats is debatable.  Whether they will believe Democrats and vote for their promises for what they want—lower prices, health care, better schools, an end to wars, etc.—is also debatable.

 

Neither the disillusionment nor the disappointment of the disaffected reflects much concern for abstract Constitutional principles or obstruse legal niceties.  Without an electorate urging such reforms, reformers will lack the persistent popular support to make significant changes in federal governance and elections.  Protesters at ICE facilities or of its actions opposed episodic, not systematic, abuses of democracy.  Three, five, eight million marchers in the streets—numbers slowly moving toward that theoretical 3.5% presumably needed to overthrow a government—are unimpressive against an electorate of 175 million registered voters, a voting-age population of 235 million, and a total population of 350 million.  Many Americans are tuning out the betrayal of the foundational principles in the Declaration of Independence and the Constitution; many are turning a blind eye to the administration’s unprecedented corruption.  And at least a third of the electorate supports antidemocratic principles, evident in 15 years of SCOTUS decisions undoing civil rights which promote political and racial equality, also evident in the rush of most formerly Confederate states to destroy the voting rights, thus the political power, of blacks.  Many more Americans are privately racist or misogynistic in rejecting the foundational principle that “all men are created equal.”  Everywhere, Republicans are doing everything possible to handicap or shrink the franchise, to the disproportionate disadvantage of people of color, women, seniors, and students.  The idea that democracy is a fair competition of political parties and their platforms is anathema to them.  A defeat in one or two elections will not change their minds and deter them from future attempts at overthrowing American democracy.

 

Those few protesting systematic abuses of democracy are unlikely to sustain their efforts after election wins in 2026 and 2028.  Protests emerge quickly like mushrooms, then disappear as quickly.  Occupy Wall Street is an example.  They do not last, but, if they last for a while, they dissipate their energies in internal debates and quarrels, and lose their focus.  Once Trump is gone, even protesters will seek to return to something like their former quiet lives, not stay with the noisy turbulence of reform.  To urge persistence, Thomas Jefferson’s authority is invoked by the saying, wrongly attributed to Jefferson, “the price of freedom is eternal vigilance.”  Even so, eternal vigilance is in short supply, and the supply is getting shorter as technology distracts us from and disrupts thoughtful efforts to obtain, assess, and act on pertinent information.

 

Antedating these asocial technologies is the reluctance of most Americans to get involved in politics, whether local, regional, or national.  Many give as a reason for not voting the lame self-justification that their votes do not matter; their expression of defeated inflated egoism implies that their individual votes should, but do not, make a difference.  At best, they cynically applaud the “rugged individual” who stands up to authority; Mr. Smith Goes to Washington honors their hypocrisy.  In most fora, Mr. Smiths get resisted, if not reviled, when they speak truth to power—which is why prophets are not honored in their own country.  Of course, if they do not vote and let others self-select themselves to govern, these defeatists become self-defeatists who make little or no contribution to civic life and who surrender some control of their lives to unknown others.

 

Worse, ever since Trump won the 2024 election, in which Republicans secured dominance in all three branches of the federal government, the nation has witnessed the abject subservience of Congressional Republicans to Trump’s threats.  They have let Trump make decisions properly theirs to make.  Commentators accuse them of cowardice.  No doubt, cowardice explains some of their behavior, but general agreement with Trump’s impulses explains more of it.  The same might be said of the electorate at large.  Many, if not most, people shy from political discussion or debate, and the perceived threat of possible acrid and angry disagreements, not to mention doxxing and other forms of retribution.  They lack the courage of their commitments and the strength to act accordingly.  The “land of the free and the home of the brave”—ha.

 

Let me end this discussion with the fervent hope that I am entirely in the wrong.