REFLECTIONS ON RECENT AND NEAR-TERM POLITICAL EVENTS

The past few days have been quite remarkable, among the most portentous in American history.

 

President Trump has resorted to federalizing a state national guard over the objections of California Governor Newsom and Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass.  Doubling down on Trump’s uncalled-for action, Defense Secretary Hegseth has sent a Marine battalion from its 29 Palms base.  They are doing two things in Los Angeles: almost nothing because there is almost nothing for them to do and inflaming the situation.  This military incursion into America’s second largest city sends a message to the rest of the country—Trump’s order is not limited to California—that militarized occupation and political repression are coming for majority-Democratic cities (mostly in the North).  America has seen nothing like this since the Reconstruction Era for two decades after the Civil War.  During that period, northern armies served to protect those working to promote democratic government and incorporate freed blacks into it, from guerilla groups, including the Ku Klux Klan.  Now, 160 years later, the “South” is rising again.

 

Trump’s military parade in Washington, D.C., is unprecedented.  There have been both major and minor military parades before, after the conclusion of major wars, in honor of local military events, or in tribute to veterans.  I know of none which involved a display of massive weapons like tanks.  The parade occurs on Flag Day, on the 250^th anniversary of the U.S. Army, and on Trump’s 79^th birthday.  He has made it clear that no one will be allowed to spoil his parade by protesting him, its militaristic message, its multi-million-dollar cost, and its damage to roads and malls.  Indeed, he has threatened protesters, peaceful or not, with a very forceful response.  No TACO moment: the military will inflict injuries or fatalities on protesters.

 

The violation of protesters’ First Amendment rights to speak and assemble in such a situation will raise difficult questions with undemocratic answers.  Thanks to the Supreme Court, Trump cannot be charged because he has immunity from his “official” acts.  A claim can be made that presiding over a parade is not an official act within the scope of presidential responsibilities, but it is not likely to be persuasive to the six Republican regressive justices.  Moreover, Trump would likely pardon those charged for constitutional violations.  Given his displays of disrespect for the courts and his resistance to court orders, Trump is likely to disregard court decisions not to his liking.  Courts might issue legal or constitutional rulings to restrain him, but to no avail; fine opinions, except for the record, will be ignored.  Although the six GOP SCOTUS justices, especially Chief Justice John Roberts, corrupted the court to achieve “conservative” objectives, Trump’s public contempt will still dishonor it and thereby humiliate these feckless justices.

 

Many hope that the elections of 2026 and 2028 will enable the country to recover from the ruination which Trump has visited upon it.  But there will be no elections.  Trump knows that his policies have made him far more unpopular than he has ever been, that the opposition to him is growing is size and intensity, and that he has endangered the strength, perhaps even the survival, of the Republican Party.  His increasingly authoritarian conduct can mean only one thing: he and the party cannot remain in power after another election or two.  Current Republican efforts to disenfranchise or hinder voters will continue, but he and the party will hold the cancellation of the election in reserve if those efforts do not give them assurance of electoral success.

 

I offer this advice to all as a public service announcement.