IRAN: THE ONLY WINNING MOVE

 At the end of the movie War Games, the protagonist, played by Matthew Broderick, teaches a computer gaining control of the ICBM launch codes that any game from tic-tac-toe to Global Thermonuclear War ends in defeat.  The computer learns and flashes up a final message: “The only winning move is not to play.”

There is no going back to the day before Trump decided to launch his war of choice against Iran.  There is no undoing 8 months’ worth of deaths to thousands of Irani civilians and damage to countless homes and businesses, as well as Irani political leaders, military personnel, and military installations.  And there are no continuing attacks and threats of attacks to achieve any of the war’s shifting objectives.  There is only quitting the war.

 

That is the only option on the table; end the war by quitting it.  Quitting it means that Trump’s hubris in starting the war requires America’s humiliation in ending it.  But quitting it is not as bad as continuing it, for the longer Trump wages war on Iran, the greater its cost to America’s and the world’s economic well-being, its political influence in international affairs, and its military standing.

 

Of course, Trump will not quit.  He who cannot admit a mistake will not abase himself by doing so.  Instead, he will continue the war in one way or another short of all-out hostilities while he searches for something, anything, which he can claim is a win.  The most which he can now hope for is the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, although, with Irani/Omani tolls, that reopening will not restore the status quo ante.  American and Israeli ships will probably be denied passage.  But even that reopening with restrictions might be enough for him to claim a win as if it were one of his original objectives.  But he will be reminded of this faux success any time he raises the issue of Iran’s nuclear program, which is likely to be accelerated.  (Update: he must also hope for the opening of the Houthi-controlled Bab al-Mandab Strait.)

 

After the interlude of Trump's second presidency, Democrats will have their work cut out for them to make America great again, as we nearly were before Trump descended his escalator.

 

Militarily, the Pentagon must learn how to fight modern, evolving wars.  Whatever might be said about the performance of its military forces in bombing Iranian targets, elementary schools included, they have failed to subdue Iranian leadership to Trump’s demands.  After intensive American bombing with advanced weaponry, Iran has lost many of its senior leaders.  But they have been replaced by leaders even more repressive of a suffering population and even more hostile to and defiant of America.  The country has rallied in understandable nationalistic support and has survived to resist American aggression.  America has not learned from the Vietnam War that it cannot bomb an enemy into submission.

 

Indeed, Iran has inflicted serious damage on American military forces and on America’s Arab allies in the region.  The plight of personnel on the USS Abraham Lincoln led to the discovery of problems not only with that aircraft carrier, but also with associated naval warships and facilities.  Some of those problems reflect the damage done to a major American logistical center which has led to shortages of munitions and necessities like food and water.  Iran needed few missiles and many drones to inflict this damage and to close the Strait.

 

More ominously, the failure of America’s reckless campaign against Iran, which reflects both political dementia and military debilities, has called into question the value of American security guarantees and capabilities.  The damage to American bases, not to mention facilities in allied countries, and the revelation of weaknesses in war-fighting and logistical means to support that fighting suggest that the American shield against Iranian (and Houthi) aggression is not as strong as it had seemed.  The result will be that allies will pursue other means to protect themselves which are less reliant on America.  The Pentagon must rethink its entire approach to modern warfare—Trump’s push for battleships will be nothing more than a waste of resources diverted from more effective weaponry—and to do so in ways which enable it to support America’s international interests and political objectives.  Otherwise, it will fail to restore military power as an effective agent of America’s political influence.

 

To make America great again in international affairs and keep it safe at home will require more brains and brawn than Trump and Hegseth can muster.  Their foolishness has jeopardized American interests and influence not only in the Middle East, but also in the Far East.  And their closing of counter-intelligence agencies and their dismissal of experienced intelligence analysts and military leaders make America more vulnerable to terrorist attacks.  America is less capable of detecting and preventing another major terrorist attack and less capable of identifying and responding effectively to its attackers.  The likelihood of such attacks will increase with a prolongation of the war against Iran.  Quitting that war will make America safer, if not greater.  If “the only winning move is not to play,” the next best move is to stop playing.