Years ago, my sister-in-law, knowing that I was curious about the Russian steppes, gave me Eric Newby’s The Big Red Train Ride (1977) for Christmas. By the time I finished it, I understood two things about Russia. First, its centuries-long history of hostilities has understandably made it psycho-socially insecure, paranoid, and, to compensate, repressive within its borders and aggressive and imperialistic beyond them. Second, this combination of traits has, with the exception of great music, great novels, and grandiose architecture, left the country with nothing which could otherwise be called a civilization or a civilized way of or outlook on life. The result: Russia as a whole operates like a collection of barbarians, brutal to themselves, brutal to others, who fight among themselves as much as with others. Only when attacked do they coalesce.
Ukraine has been a recent showcase of the brutality of Russian barbarism. In the early 1930s, when Stalin sought to enforce collective farming and suppress Ukrainian nationalism, his efforts resulted in the direct deaths of 3 to 3.5 million people (omitting a decline of a half million in births), or about 13% of the population. Today, in his aggressive, imperialistic attack on Ukraine, Putin is attacking its civilian population with traditional indifference to human life. To win, especially in the face of stiff resistance, Russia will adopt a no-holds-barred, scorched-earth approach to suppress the population and conquer territory. It will terrorize civilians to create millions of refugees to burden NATO countries with a humanitarian crisis draining resources, damaging economies, creating ethnic frictions, and promoting political instability. This conclusion is certain; just as Russia does not care about its own people, it does not care about other people.
Putin’s method of warfare reflects the abysmal ethics of Russia and its people. The corruption, cronyism, and coerciveness of Putin’s government builds on the corruption, cronyism, and coerciveness of previous governments. Russia lacks political ideals and a political philosophy to guide its government in domestic or foreign affairs. Government is ruled by men, not law. Which means that dishonesty is endemic in its way of life. The Russian constitution, modeled on Western constitutions, is a lie because it means what those in power, through its courts, say it means. Russia’s signature on a treaty is a lie in waiting until Russia finds it advantageous to ignore it. When Putin repeatedly asserted that he intended no aggression against Ukraine, he was not, and knew he was not, telling the truth. He cared more about buying time for the West to splinter about whether to believe him or not and whether to organize against a possible incursion than about personal honesty and how his political dishonesty might affect future diplomacy.
Such dishonesty has been a fixture of Russian international and national conduct especially since the end of World War II. Russia (also the USSR, which it dominated) has proven untrustworthy in its international obligations. Russia has kept none of its post-World War II commitments in Eastern Europe. Instead of ending the occupation of its liberated countries, Russia installed communist governments and suppressed revolts (1953 East German uprising, 1956 Hungarian Revolution, and 1968 Prague Spring). It invaded Afghanistan and fought (1979-1989) to support a communist government under attack from nationalist fighters opposed to it. Not for nothing did Reagan adopt the policy of trusting but verifying. Only the demise of the USSR in December 1991 enabled the countries of Eastern Europe to reclaim their independence. Those countries which joined NATO wanted their membership to protect their independence. Ukraine’s interest in joining NATO reflects the same desire. Putin is trying to reverse the break-up of the Russian empire, and Ukraine is his first aggressive effort to do so. With Ukraine behind him, he will try elsewhere, most likely the Baltic states: Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia.
The question is what U.S. policy should be. I assume that Russia prevails in Ukraine, that it kills thousands, wounds or maims many thousands more, creates millions of refugees, and commits war crimes in the process, in violation of treaties which it has signed. I also assume that the U.S. will establish a unified policy with NATO (and EU) members, which, to this end, should admit Finland, Sweden, and a Ukraine government-in-exile as members. The U.S. policy should be the policy of the West.
The West should declare Russia a pariah nation and sever or work to sever all ties—military, political, economic, and cultural—with Russia. It should isolate Russia by detaching itself from all means of Russian influence. The West’s policies and practices should work to neutralize Russia as a country with the power to threaten other countries.
If Russia wants to build more nuclear weapons, let it. NATO countries do not need to engage in an arms race. They already have enough nuclear weapons either to deter Russia or to destroy whatever and as much as it wants. It needs only to keep pace with technological advances in weaponry. The West should adopt a strategy of resisting Russian aggression, whether in overt military action or covert cyberattacks, in kind.
The West, with others as necessary, should oust Russia from all international organizations: the United Nations, the G-8, etc. The West should restrict or terminate all communications and transportation, end all commercial and financial relationships, discontinue all cultural and educational exchanges. It should maintain economic sanctions indefinitely, and liquidate all Russian assets in the West and use them to fund humanitarian aid to Ukrainian refugees. The West should multiply its efforts to reduce its need for fossil fuels and thereby end dependence on Russian gas and petroleum. This isolation should be achieved as rapidly as feasible and maintained indefinitely, without regard for Russian assurances, promises, or even changes of policies. Russia must change by adopting a different way of life and establishing it throughout. But it will not, so it must be constrained by the isolation of its pariah status to reconstitute itself as a civilized country.
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